Plan B Bitcoin price prediction for 2023 using ‘S2F model’
Plan B Bitcoin price predictions have been accurate in the past, so what can investors in the world’s largest cryptocurrency expect over the next two years?
This article looks at Plan B’s so-called ‘stock-to-flow’ prediction model and how he’s arrived at an incredibly bullish forecast for the end of 2023.
Who is Plan B?
Plan B is a Dutch Bitcoin analyst, who claims to have 25 years experience as an institutional investor, but chooses to remain anonymous.
He first became known by the pseudonym ‘Plan B’ when he released a paper in early 2019 that attempts to model Bitcoin’s price based on the stock-to-flow model.
What is Plan B’s stock-to-flow model?
Plan B created his stock-to-flow model after reading the book “The Bitcoin Standard” in 2019.
His model uses the ratio between the existing supply of Bitcoin and the new supply of Bitcoin to estimate future prices of the currency.
It is possible to predict such ratios with great accuracy, because the amount of new Bitcoins being added into circulation through mining is constant.
Unlike gold, Bitcoin’s rate of supply increase will always decrease, before eventually reaching zero once the currency’s cap of 21 million coins is hit.
The number of new coins being mined halves every four years, significantly reducing the number that are being created.
The most recent Bitcoin halving took place in May 2020, with a significant increase in the Bitcoin price following just a few months later.
Plan B created his stock-to-flow model in March of 2019 when the Bitcoin price had fallen below $4,000 from the 2017 high of $2,000.
At that point, many observers were predicting Bitcoin to plummet further to $1,000, but Plan B’s stock-to-flow model was telling him the only way was up.
“(I thought) we have to go up from here … and we have to go up to the $1 trillion market cap,” he told the Unchained podcast.
Bitcoin hit the $1 trillion market cap milestone in February of 2021.
Plan B’s recent predictions?
Plan B was predicting a $98,000 Bitcoin by the end of November 2021, but has since clarified that his forecast was based on only one of his three forecast models.
“To clarify my 98K Nov prediction is NOT based on my stock-to-flow model but on my floor model,” Plan B said.
“As I said before (in tweets and latest podcasts), I use 3 models: 1) S2F model 2) Floor model 3) On-chain model.
“If for example 98K Nov floor model prediction fails, that does NOT mean S2F or on-chain fails.”
However, the man, who goes by the pseudonym ‘Plan B’ to protect his identity, has been remarkably accurate with his predictions in the past.
When Bitcoin plunged below $34,000 in June of this year he correctly predicted the price would rally to $63,000 by October.
Plan B’s Bitcoin prediction for 2023
Plan B has recently said on Twitter that the world’s largest cryptocurrency is on track to hit US$100,000 in 2023.
“Both (my) stock-to-flow models and logarithmic regression point to $100k in 2023,” he said.
Will the Bitcoin price crash again?
What goes up, must come down.
Plan B thinks that if this does end up being an enormous bull run, like those before it, will end with a significant price crash of up to 80%.
“I seem to be one of the few who thinks we’re in a normal cycle, that we’ll go down again after the all-time high,” he said.
“Everybody hopes for the super cycle or for the ‘hyperbitcoinization’ to start right now and that we do not have a big crash after next all time highs.
“(But) as much as I would hope that we don’t see that crash, I think we will.
“I think we’ll be managed by greed right now and fear later on… and see another minus 80% after we top out at a couple of hundred thousand dollars.”
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