Bitcoin analyst ‘PlanB’ has clarified his prediction that the digital currency will reach a price US$98,000 by the end of November, as its price growth continues to stall.
The former institutional investor with 25 years experience, who was also predicting a $135,000 Bitcoin by the end of December, now says his data was based on only one of his three forecast models.
“To clarify my 98K Nov prediction is NOT based on my stock-to-flow model but on my floor model,” Plan B said.
“As I said before (in tweets and latest podcasts), I use 3 models: 1) S2F model 2) Floor model 3) On-chain model.
“If for example 98K Nov floor model prediction fails, that does NOT mean S2F or on-chain fails.”
The man, who goes by the pseudonym ‘Plan B’ to protect his identity, has been remarkably accurate with his predictions in the past.
When Bitcoin plunged below $34,000 in June of this year he correctly predicted the price would rally to $63,000 by October.
Plan B’s stock-to-flow model
PlanB created his stock-to-flow model in March of 2019 when the Bitcoin price had fallen below $4,000 from the 2017 high of $2,000.
At that point, many observers were predicting Bitcoin to plummet further to $1,000, but PlanB says his stock-to-flow model was telling him the only way was up.
“(I thought) we have to go up from here … and we have to go up to the $1 trillion market cap,” he told the Unchained podcast.
Bitcoin hit the $1 trillion market cap milestone in February of this year.
Plan B’s end-of-year prediction
Plan B had told his 1.5 million Twitter followers that he believed Bitcoin would continue its enormous rally for the rest of this year.
He said the only thing that could stop the world’s largest cryptocurrency would be a “black swan event we haven’t seen in the past 10 years.”
“Frankly I would be very surprised if it doesn’t (continue),” he told Unchained.
“(I think) we’ll go to $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December. So that will be a very nice Christmas if that comes true.”
Will the Bitcoin price crash again?
What goes up, must come down.
Plan B thinks that this bull run, like those before it, will end with a significant price crash of up to 80%.
“I seem to be one of the few who thinks we’re in a normal cycle, that we’ll go down again after the all-time high,” he said.
“Everybody hopes for the super cycle or for the ‘hyperbitcoinization’ to start right now and that we do not have a big crash after next all time highs.
“(But) as much as I would hope that we don’t see that crash, I think we will.
“I think we’ll be managed by greed right now and fear later on… and see another minus 80% after we top out at a couple of hundred thousand dollars.”
Has China made a big mistake?
In recent weeks, Asia Markets has reported on how sharply Bitcoin has rallied since China banned cryptocurrency transactions.
At one stage, China had more than 50% of Bitcoin mining power, but within a few short months things have dramatically changed.
“Now, a couple of months later, the situation is completely opposite,” PlanB said.
“The United States has 50% of the hash power of the Bitcoin network and China has zero.
“So China has decided not to play the Bitcoin game and in my opinion they gave away a very strategic and important advantage.”
In September, Bobby Lee, the man who founded BTC China, said investors shouldn’t panic about China’s ban.
“(The) mini flash crash that followed the Chinese PBOC announcement is just that: small, and short,” he posted on Twitter on September 24.
Lee has joined Plan B in making bold predictions for Bitcoin’s finish to the year, predicting a price of up to $333,000 by December 31.
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