Incredibly accurate S&P 500 stock market model forecasts huge end to 2022
Each year leading Florida-based investment research firm, Ned Davis Research, produces an S&P 500 stock market forecast model, known as the NDR Cycle Composite.
Provided to Ned Davis Research clients towards the end of each year, the model forecasts the week-by-week moves of the S&P 500 for the year ahead.
It has a very sound track record, and is a reason why the firm has become one of the most respected in the U.S.
However, the NDR Cycle Composite for the S&P 500 in 2022 has been attracting a lot of attention lately.
It has proven incredibly accurate, and to date, is one of the firm’s most precise models in its three-decade history.
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What is the model forecasting for the S&P 500 in the remainder of 2022?
For the stock market bulls, it’s good news.
Here’s approximately where we are today on the 2022 NDR Cycle Composite.
If the model’s accuracy to date is anything to go by, there’s significant upside for the S&P 500 in the remainder of the year.
How is Ned Davis’ S&P 500 modelling formulated?
According to Ned Davis Research, the firm’s research approach blends both fundamental and technical disciplines.
Its annual Cycle Composite models for the S&P 500 use a rather novel approach. As the name suggests, the model’s forecasted stock market path for the year ahead is derived from a composite calculation of market moves over four key cycles.
- A one year ‘seasonal’ cycle.
- Four year U.S. Presidential cycle.
- 10 year ‘decennial’ cycle.
BWM Financial provides a sound overview of the rationale behind each of these cycles in this article.
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