A survey of leading economists and analysts in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand has found consensus in the expectation that the major Southeast Asian economies will once again see positive growth in 2021.
The quarterly consensus survey conducted by The Japan Center for Economic Research and Nikkei found optimism was highest for the outlook for Singapore, Indonesia and India. Respondents still maintained growth expectations for Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines however those expectations have softened compared to the survey conducted in the prior quarter.
The rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations is seen as one of the most significant developments over the past three months, while the further spread of COVID variants and vaccination delays was seen by the experts as the biggest concerns for their economies.
Inflation acceleration was the second-largest risk factor.
Key highlights from the survey:
- The average growth rate of the five ASEAN countries in 2021 was 4.3%, matching the previous survey and representing a sharp recovery from 2020’s negative 4.8%.
- India is expected to recover in a V-shape, up to 11.2% from minus 7.6% in fiscal 2020 (2020/2021), and up 2.1 points from the previous survey.
- The outlook of ASEAN5 countries is divided into two groups. Singapore’s growth rate was up 1.6 points to 6.1% and Indonesia’s rose 0.3 points to 3.9%. On the other hand, Malaysia’s was down 0.6 points to 5.3%, and the Philippines’ was also down 0.7 points to 5.2%. The economy in Thailand is expected to grow at the lowest rate among the surveyed countries, down 0.9 points to 2.6%.
- Expectations for 2022 are higher than in the previous survey (excluding Thailand), and expectations for recovery are rising.